Economic outlook: Why small builders will have the advantage in 2023

Show Notes

On todayโ€™s episode of โ€œThe Building Code,โ€ Zach and Charley are talking to Mark Boud, a real estate economist. Markโ€™s modeled forecasts and analytics are trusted by major builders, land developers and capital groups and financial institutions. He and his team conduct master planned residential market research throughout the nation. 

Tune in to the full episode to hear more about the economic outlook for construction in 2023 and how to prepare your business.

How will small to mid-sized builders benefit in the forecasted economic climate?

โ€œWhat I’ve seen most recently is the advantage kind of shifting to smaller builders, and I like that. I love working with small- to medium-sized private builders. They tend to be a little bit more nimble and a little bit more sensitive to market trends. And I think that can translate to them having the ability to change more quickly during an inflection point where most public builders take some time to right that ship. A smaller builder can change pretty quickly. They still need research to do that. And the weakness that I see some of those smaller builders having is that they don’t necessarily invest in research the way the big builders do. That’s changing. I do a lot of presentations for CBUSA and of course Buildertrend. I’ve seen that change mainly because of entities like yourselves (Buildertrend) have enabled them to group together for educational purposes, for supply line purposes, for all kinds of advantages that those larger entities have had in the past. You kind of translate that to the smaller builder, which I think is really encouraging.โ€

What economic advantages are you seeing for smaller builders in terms of material supply?

โ€œThere might be a little bit of an advantage for those smaller, more nimble builders. A lot of those larger builders during the past 24 months in fear of losing supply entered into long-range, long-term contracts at the very peak of the market in order to control that supply. So, the smaller builders were left out of that and had a real hard time with all kinds of supply issues. However, that pendulum is now shifting with those larger builders stuck with those very high costly contracts and the smaller builders being able to move in and take advantage of what I think is going to be a correction in supply. We’re already beginning to see that a little bit, but I think during the next six months, the smaller builders will be able to take advantage of that while the larger builders are still trying to calm down the supply pipeline that they currently have. To me, there’s a potential advantage in there for the smaller builders, now that we’re in the midst of this inflection point.โ€

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Transcript

Zach Wojtowicz:

Hey everyone. Welcome back to โ€œThe Building Code.โ€ I’m Zach Wojtowicz.

Charley Burtwistle:

And I’m Charley Burtwistle.

Zach Wojtowicz:

It’s another episode, but a special episode because this time we get to talk about a little more economics.

Charley Burtwistle:

Heck yeah. Very, very excited. Obviously, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now. People are tossing around the scary recession word. People are talking about demand, supply, all the good old economic terms. Instead of listening to Zach and I try to fake our way through it, we brought in an expert. Zach, tell them who we have today.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah. We have Mark Boud out of Irvine, California. He is an expert in real estate, economics, analytics, and feasibility studies. That is really impressive. He’s got a long career in economic analysis, and he’s a hot commodity. And like you said, Charley, really, we are not in any position to do more than to give our hot takes. So, we thought let’s get a real expert in here and talk about some of these trends in construction. And I always love these really cerebral conversations because it lets us kind of see the realities, but I know that we probably got some positives, too, that maybe we could shine some light on.

Charley Burtwistle:

Absolutely. Yeah. Mark, he’s been around for a long time. He’s an expert in the field, and I’m personally looking forward to learning a lot from him.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah, that’s right. Well, let’s not prolong the inevitable and get Mark on here, so we can start talking a little econ and maybe we can learn a thing or two. Mark, welcome to โ€œThe Building Code.โ€ Thank you so much for being here today. Before we dive deep into the world of economics, let’s talk a little bit about yourself and your background for our listeners.

Mark Boud:

You bet. I’m a real estate economist. I studied economics at Brigham Young University back in the Stone Age. I graduated in 1985 and have worked, really, in the private sector ever since. Most people know me from my work at Real Estate Economics. That’s a company that I started in 1990 and eventually sold in 2015 to Metrostudy, Hanley Wood and worked as their chief economist. First for Metrostudy, then for Hanley Wood for five years and just really enjoyed that experience. Had a great time. And after five years, my non-compete ran out, and I gently stepped away to hang up my own shingle, took a couple of clients with me and to not work quite as hard as I have. So, I’m enjoying kind of a pre-retirement life right now.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah. Unfortunately, apparently the industry wasn’t quite ready for you to retire, needed your thoughts a little bit more. I feel bad. We brought you on in November ’22 and a lot of scary things are happening right now. I imagine this would’ve been a lot more fun interview a couple years ago, and we could have talked about how awesome everything is booming, but I feel like that’s just kind of a day in the life of an economist. No one wants to talk until they’re scared.

Mark Boud:

Well, an economist loves change, and we’re at a big inflection point. So, for me, these are very exciting times to study that to understand that it’s more difficult than it’s ever been, but I enjoy that challenge.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Beauty’s in that eye of beholder, right?

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah.

Zach Wojtowicz:

This is your time to shine. How many interviews did we do in good economic times about the economy?

Mark Boud:

The past year I’ve done presentations and economic seminars and interviews. I do about a hundred a year.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Wow. Not bad. Definitely keeping you busy. Let’s talk a little bit about that on your current work with real estate economics, analytics and feasibility studies. So, when you’re going to conferences, you’re doing speaking engagements, you’re on podcasts, everybody’s in demand, what are you talking about? What are they hoping to learn or what do you specifically hope to convey in these moments to talk about your expertise?

Mark Boud:

Right. So, actually, what my daytime job is, I do feasibility studies and highest and best use studies for big land developers and builders. Those are my main clients, and then I get invited to all of these various conferences and meetings to present to the industry in general what’s going on. Yeah. I just enjoy that. But my main work is consulting work, analytical work for the builders and the big landowners across the country.

Charley Burtwistle:

Do you see a lot of similarities? I mean primarily Buildertrend customers are kind of in the small to medium size, 10 to 20 homes a year or even some remodelers and specialty contractors. Do you see a lot of similarities, I would imagine, between the residential space and some of these larger commercial or maybe even publicly traded big builders?

Mark Boud:

Well, the big builders, the public builders tend to have somewhat of a built-in advantage, especially during a downturn. They can write off debt. Back in the 2008 to 2012 period, they did that in such a way that they were able to kind of monopolize the industry despite the fact that everything was so bad. A private builder basically went belly up, where a public builder just rewrote the debt. So, there’s an advantage for those large builders because of that, because of their economies of scale, because of their ability to control supply pipelines, which was very big during the past 18 to 24 months.

However, what I’ve seen most recently is the advantage kind of shifting to smaller builders, and I like that. I love working with small to medium sized private builders. They tend to be a little bit more nimble and a little bit more sensitive to market trends. And I think that can translate to them having the ability to change more quickly during an inflection point where most public builders take some time to right that ship. A smaller builder can change pretty quickly. They still need research to do that. And the weakness that I see some of those smaller builders having is that they don’t necessarily invest in research the way the big builders do. That’s changing. I do a lot of presentations for CBUSA and of course Buildertrend. I’ve seen that change mainly because entities like yourselves have enabled them to group together for educational purposes, for supply line purposes, for all kinds of advantages that those larger entities have had in the past. You kind of translate that to the smaller builder, which I think is really encouraging.

Zach Wojtowicz:

I have this internal kind of hope, and I always be talk about how Buildertrend is uniquely positioned to be kind of the railroad of the residential construction space to connect them. At the time, builders that I’ve talked to at our events. Theyโ€™re always thirsty to know what is the guy a city over doing or even a state over? So, it’s really interesting that you say that we can play that part. You said it was interesting. You talked about the big builders, and not only do they have the advantage in downturns because they likely have more sophisticated financial processes, they see the opportunity, they use it. Then you talk about the material side of things. Did you see a lot of those bigger builders driving up those prices on the materials markets in the last two years? Builders are really having a rough go. They’ve dealt with unprecedented logistical issues, and now they’re in uncertain times. Interest rates are increasing. How is that going to affect the bigger builder who maybe contributes to some of these things overall compared to the smaller builder?

Mark Boud:

Right. Well, again, there might be a little bit of an advantage for those smaller, more nimble builders because a lot of those larger builders during the past 24 months in fear of losing supply entered into long-range contracts, long-term contracts at the very peak of the market in order to control that supply. So, the smaller builders were left out of that and had a real hard time with all kinds of supply issues. However, that pendulum is now shifting with those larger builders stuck with those very high costly contracts and the smaller builders being able to move in and take advantage of what I think is going to be a correction in supply. I mean, we’re already beginning to see that a little bit, but I think during the next six months, the smaller builders will be able to take advantage of that while the larger builders are still trying to calm down the supply pipeline that they currently have. To me, there’s a potential advantage in there for the smaller builders now that we’re in the midst of this inflection point.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah, I think that’s really interesting, especially the material side. You mentioned working with our good friends over at CBUSA who, obviously, they do group purchasing and allow smaller builders to buy materials at hopefully lower rates similar to the larger type builders, but without being in those locked-in contracts. So, hate to toot our own horn or and plug too many sales on the podcast, but definitely check out CBUSA. They’re a fantastic organization. We’re looking to grow a ton going into next year.

One of the things that Zach mentioned was the interest rates, well, I guess really the past couple years. It was really, really good for a long time, unprecedentedly, but then the past six months or so continued to climb. Do you think we’re kind of at peak where that begins to correct itself, or are we going to stay steady for a while there? What’s kind of your forecast going into ’23 around interest rates specifically?

Mark Boud:

Right. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ve peaked. I mean, I know that we’ve seen some downturn in mortgage rates during the past couple weeks, but I think that’s almost a blip, especially when the Fed is talking about … Right now, the Fed funds rate is at 3.88, and they’re saying that they’re really not going to calm down until it hits 5%. Not that mortgage rates necessarily correlate with the Fed funds rate. It mainly correlates with the 10-year treasury yield, but the 10-year treasury yield has begun to calm down a little bit. The 10-year treasury yield really tracks with inflation, and inflation has calmed down a little bit. It’s gone from 9% back in June to, I think right now it’s about 7.8%, which is a shockingly high rate if we were talking about that six months ago. But right now, it’s a relief relative to that 9%.

It’s still high enough where I think it has a few more months of pulling up the 10-year treasury yield. So, even though the 10-year treasury reel has come down a little bit, I think its overall trend, even though it’s going to be erratic, it’s going to be upward for a few months. And as the 10-year treasury yield goes up, it pulls up the mortgage rates. So, we’re getting a little bit of a reprieve right now, but I think it’s short lived, and I think actually we won’t peak until sometime during the first quarter of next year.

Zach Wojtowicz:

One thing that I was talking to another friend about, we had these rising material costs, and now those are coming back down. The one thing is the shortage of availability of housing that is one of the main drivers of price increases. I mean, will this give an opportunity to spread out the availability of housing in communities? Even in our own market, Charley was looking for a house and he would try and get one, and before he knew it was like, boom. And then they’d go look at building options. It was like, well, they’re competing with the market and so, they’re charging just as much. Will we see any sort of decrease in the inventory, or increase in the inventory, which then hopefully will bring the pricing down?

Mark Boud:

Well, yes, but it’s not going to be a dramatic increase. It’s nothing like in the past cycle, 2005 through 2008. We built so many homes that weren’t really meant to be lived in. They were basically investment properties, and the amount of oversupply was just enormous. We had overvaluation and oversupply in 2005. This time around, we have a bubble. We have overvaluation, but we don’t have that oversupply. And in fact, the supply line issues that we’ve had simply held back the supply and the fact that material costs tend to lag price. Usually what happens is, home prices go down and then it may be up to six months, even a year before material costs follow suit in a dramatic fashion.

So, we find ourselves in this funny period where costs are still high, prices are coming down, and that means that a lot of near-term projects no longer pencil because they can’t hit the high prices associated with those costs, which brings down supply. So, I don’t see much oversupply happening. I think that overall supply is going to remain tight. There’s another factor that even the resale market will remain fairly tight because most of the resale market is associated with move-up housing. People who purchase their first home or second home, they refinanced at a ridiculously low rate, 3%, two and a half percent, three and a half percent. And they’re not going to move. Why in the world would they give up that 3% rate to purchase a new home at 7%? It’s not going to happen, at least not very often.

What happens is you get people remaining in place and that turnover rate slows way down. That slow turnover rate slows the supply or reduces the supply, and even in the listings in the existing home market. So, we’re not building nearly as many new homes as we should. Our listings are going to go up, but they’re going to be fairly tight still. That means that overall prices, they’ll come down a bit because we hit ridiculously high levels, but they’re not going to come down as much as a lot of people think. They’ll come down because really in effect, what we did is when we went from three and half percent to 7% mortgage rates, that translates to almost a 40% increase in monthly cost, and that’s just completely unsustainable. Prices will have to come down because of that, but they’re not going to collapse like they did in 2008. We’ll see. My own forecast is from top to bottom nationally, some markets will be worse, some will be better, we’ll hit about a 10% correction. That still sounds fairly bad, but it’s far below the 30% plus correction we experienced last time.

Charley Burtwistle:

Right. I think a lot of things. I mean, you mentioned the ability of smaller builders to stay nimble, adjust and different things like that as we’re going through these crazy times to stay on top of their feet and keep their business sustainable. What other things would you kind of recommend, I guess, if someone’s hearing this and thinking to themselves like, “Oh crap. Am I ready for what’s about to come?” What do you recommend the builder do to prepare for all these things that you’re forecasting and even a possible recession and things that may be coming in ’23?

Mark Boud:

Well, I think in the near term, it’s really important to take a step back from move-up product. Again, that move-up product is going to be very slow because it’s so dependent upon rollover equity and that rollover for us is going to slow way down because people won’t give up their low fixed rate. The entry- level market is different. The entry-level market, those buyers aren’t beholden to a low mortgage rate. They’re still incredibly cost sensitive. But as prices come down a bit, and as builders participate in some creative financing, it enables those entry-level buyers to come in and those builders to tap into enormous levels of demand in the entry-level market. Those smaller builders will have to work with their banks to offer buy downs and some of the other things that will directly lower the monthly cost of ownership to those entry level buyers. But there’s an enormous opportunity in the entry-level market.

Now, a lot of those smaller builders concentrate on custom homes. That high-end market is another market that should not completely fall apart. It’s not going to be damaged nearly as much as the move- up market because those very high-end buyers often are purchasing cash, or they have the assets needed to not be dramatically impacted by high mortgage rates. The luxury market will do fairly well.

And then especially the move down market. Now, with the move down market, those mature buyers still have to sell a property that’ll add to some supply. They’ll have to lower the price a little bit, but they saw enormous equity gains during this cycle. So, they will be willing to give up a little bit to move their existing home into their final home, their move down home. They’re not as sensitive to mortgage rates because a lot of them are purchasing out of assets. They’re purchasing out of that equity rollover. I think these builders really kind of need to concentrate more and more on both ends of the spectrum, the entry-level market, the high-end market to a point, and especially the move down market and begin to diversify from that middle move-up market that’s so sensitive to mortgage rates.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Are you saying more builders do that diversification of even getting into remodelers, so that they’re not the hold to just new housing? Or is it still staying pretty vertical as far as the type of work that they’re doing?

Mark Boud:

If they can get into the remodel market and a lot of those builders do that, that’s a great market. It’s going to continue to be very healthy. There’s a forecast done by Harvard every year that shows double digit growth through 2023. I think the growth rate goes down, but it’s still about 10% at the end of 2023. I actually think they’re conservative. I think that renovation market is going to continue to do really well because if people are staying in place, then it’s much easier to take a HELOC, still sensitive to the interest rate, but they can pay that off quickly to take out a HELOC and improve in place. I think we’re going to see more and more of that. I mean, it’s already been very prevalent, but we’ll see a lot of renovation activity. Those smaller builders who can move into the renovation market will benefit. A lot of publics won’t touch that, but the smaller builders will definitely benefit from that.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah, that’s something that … So, I work on the data science team here at Buildertrend, and we have about, what is it, like 40% of our customers or maybe a little under that are in the renovation or remodel industry. And it’s funny, even you mentioned studies that are being done across the economic stuff like the market, but even Buildertrend signup rates we see kind of inversely correlated where we’ll have big months of remodelers and then we see more custom home builders starting to sign up. And even Buildertrend is kind of affected by the shift between those two industries working side by side.

Zach Wojtowicz:

I’m also curious, too, as far as when we talk about technology fees and how these more mature builders are kind of investing in software, also we tend to notice. I’m curious what it looks like for our own acquisition as people kind of … Do the savvy builders go and invest more in technology because they can be more efficient, take on more work and have better insights into their business? But then the other piece that we want to talk to about is the labor side of things. There’s material, there’s the cost of building, but then it’s just the actual finding people to do the work. What’s your take on the labor shortage in the construction industry and potential solutions there?

Mark Boud:

Yeah. That’s a great question. And, actually, even before I address that, let me tackle one other element that these builders can participate in during this inflection point that would otherwise be really painful. We talked about renovation. We talked about moving away from the middle move-up market. The other is the accessory dwelling unit market. If these smaller private builders got involved in that, that’s going a huge. I mean, there’s so many markets that ADU is going to be applied toward. Military housing, disaster relief, income home to augment income from the main homeowner, rental properties, Airbnb units. There are all kinds of things that the ADU market addresses. Los Angeles County actually counts an ADU as affordable housing. So, there’s this enormous push to build ADUs in Los Angeles County because of that. It usually gets support from city governments as well because of that. So, just another one.

Now with regard to labor, which is still very difficult. Really the answer to that, and I might get some nasty letters, because the answer to that is immigration. We have got to increase legal immigration. Not for illegal immigration, but we need to turn on the spigots when it comes to legal immigration. A lot of those legal immigrants go into or are willing to go into the construction industry. We have a hard time coaxing our young people into that industry right now. They’re so drawn toward tech and other industries. It makes immigration all the more important. We had very little immigration in 2020 for obvious reasons because of the pandemic. 2021 was really low. 2022 was low. We allowed in about 800,000 legal immigrants. The demand just from the labor pool was for another 2.5 million workers could have come into the country and been absorbed into the labor market very, very easily without any negative effect whatsoever.

That’s part of the reason we’ve experienced inflation so much is because we’ve shut down that spigot. There’s a lot of other reasons. If you want, I’ll go into that. But part of it is because we’ve been so resistant to increase immigration and the construction industry should be all over that. We should be lobbying the government with regard to increasing legal immigration because it’s really the only solution. We won’t get it from natural growth.

Zach Wojtowicz:

It’s kind of a long legacy of the immigrants doing a lot of the labor on some pretty important industries in the United States as far as the railroads, as I referenced earlier, were mainly immigrant produced. It’s really interesting you bring up ADUs. I know I’m kind of circling back, but we’ve had a few clients on here, SnapADU. I worked with Shelter Solutions in Portland, and I had never seen an ADU until I started working at Buildertrend. It’s not a thing in Nebraska, and they’re amazing. I feel like we could do an entire episode on Airbnb’s effect on the real estate market. It’d be really interesting to hear your perspective on that.

Charley Burtwistle:

I want an ADU in my backyard bad. When we had our good friend Whitney Hill on from SnapADU. I’m like, if you ever shift from California to Nebraska for some reason, I’ll be your first client here in Omaha.

Mark Boud:

It’s going to grow a lot. I don’t know if you followed Boxabl, but unless there’s some corruption or something else that I’m not aware of, they’ve got a really good model. So, now as their second factory comes on, their demand is just so deep that they’re just barely scratching the surface.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Are they modular ADUs, like prefabbed?

Mark Boud:

Factory built.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Interesting.

Mark Boud:

They can produce โ€ฆ right now their first factory produces six a day. Their second factory will build something in the double digits every day. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s an entire house.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah.

Mark Boud:

The great thing is you can actually ship them in a trailer behind a pickup, whereas the downfall of modular housing is you have to get this big trailer and permits and all kinds of things to move the thing to its location. With Boxabl, you fold it up, put it on a trailer in the back of the pickup and drive it to the site without any permits. That’s a big deal.

Zach Wojtowicz:

That’s wild. Are they the ones that literally have even the electronic components built into the walls and they snap together, and it literally looks like a computer that you’re plugging in the components and then it’s built?

Mark Boud:

Yeah.

Zach Wojtowicz:

That’s wild.

Mark Boud:

You provide the foundation and then they’ll unfold it onto that foundation, and it’s basically ready to go.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Is that another labor shortage play as more and more of this affordable housing automation and technology doing the prefabrication of these homes? I mean, mass manufacturing is economies of scale to help drive down prices as well.

Mark Boud:

Yeah. My fear is that … It’s not a fear, but what I think the trend is that you’ll see the big publics getting involved in this quite a bit, instead of the smaller builders who should be involved in it. Probably will in the near term. But that’s why D.R. Horton made a huge investment into Boxabl. And you’ll see other large public builders do that same thing. It just provides another arm of revenues for them in a big way. I think we’ll see more of these builders get into it, partly because it resolves that labor issue and partly because it introduces another revenue stream.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah. We could talk about this โ€ฆ

Mark Boud:

With prices so high, it has an opportunity to add one or two more income earners into a household. So, that’s another reason that ADUs are being billed is allows somebody to grow in place to afford their home by increasing the number of income earners per household.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Not a lot of California residents without roommates I imagine these days. New home buyers.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah. We’re getting close on time here, but the last question we wanted to ask you is coming into the end of the year here, I think this episode will actually launch towards the beginning of the new year. So, what are some positive signs? What are you most looking forward to and that our builders should also maybe be excited about going into the new year?

Mark Boud:

Yeah, I’m encouraged. I mean, we’re already in a housing recession, but the overall market might experience, and I think it will experience a mild economic recession in 2023. And I think it’s short lived, partly because we have so many significant economic drivers in place to grow the economy on a national scale pretty quickly. If you think of the enormous investment that was made this year in infrastructure, a lot of those infrastructural dollars get spent, at least begin to get spent next year. Also, the turnover of the automobile industry, it’ll have a couple of turnovers from fossil fuel, combustion engines to electric engines, from electric to autonomous driving. And those are turnovers that create an enormous amount of economic activity.

Then even the housing industry, the new home market, I think has a built-in benefit relative to the existing home market because it is a lot cheaper to implement cost saving, energy saving efficiencies in that new build relative to a retrofit and not to mention updated designs, accommodation of electric vehicles, those kinds of things. The new home market is poised to continue to increase its premium relative to the existing home market if it effectively takes advantage of a lot of these new technologies. Then just the pharma, the biotech, the medical industry is going to continue to grow really well and be a major driver. That’s only a few of them, but there’s these major economic drivers in place that are poised for significant growth.

I didn’t even mention clean energy, oh my goodness. Solar and all of the elements associated with transitioning from a coal based, oil based to solar and so on. That’s an enormous turnover of infrastructure. All of those things are going to drive the economy like we’ve never seen before. So, I’m really hopeful that we see the beginnings of that in 2023 in a big way in terms of economic growth.

Charley Burtwistle:

My ’23 forecast is that Mark is not retiring anytime soon. Hearing you talk about everything that you’re excited about, it doesn’t seem to parallel with your goal of stepping away from all this.

Mark Boud:

It doesn’t look like it. I’ve been busy, and I’ve been grateful for that.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Mark, you strike me as a guy who maybe doesn’t want to fully retire. I think you might kind of like this stuff.

Mark Boud:

I have hobbies that keep me busy. I’m building some income properties in another state, and that kind of keeps me busy. But my heart is in real estate economics. I love doing that. You’ll see a lot of me in the next few years, I think.

Charley Burtwistle:

Absolutely.

Mark Boud:

Whether you want that or not.

Charley Burtwistle:

Well, I’ve learned a ton. Zach always gives me crap when I write down notes while we’re interviewing people, but I filled up almost a full page during that. So, really, really appreciate you coming on and talking with us. And yeah, we’ll see you around, I’m sure.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Thanks, Mark.

Mark Boud:

You bet.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Well, Charley, we just had Mark on, an expert in real estate economics. We covered a lot of really awesome, interesting content. I always felt like I’m getting free college courses when I have these episodes, which is really fun. You get to kind of flex what you know and really what you don’t. What’d you learn?

Charley Burtwistle:

I learned a ton. I made the reference to him after we … I can’t say that. This is live. Say, what’d you learn again?

Zach Wojtowicz:

What’d you learn?

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah, that was an awesome interview. I took almost a full page of notes on my notebook there.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Show it to the camera. Look at that. Boom. Real notes.

Charley Burtwistle:

I’m not lying. Real notes. It was great. I really appreciated his comparison of the big public builders to the smaller private builders. I feel like his perspective is one, if I was a small home builder, I’d be really encouraged by. The ability to stay nimble, move quick, quickly adapt. Even if I’m in the remodeling space, I think that was something that was encouraging. The comments he made around the move up market is going to be really, really hard and hit hard this next year. But the move-down and entry-level market is a huge opportunity. People still need to buy houses. They need places to live. It just may not going to be the high volume move-up markets that he talked about. In addition, too, he did say at the upper tier of that with the high, big value custom homes where people are typically paying cash probably won’t be affected as much. Those are three lines of my 20 lines of notes. But yeah, Mark was incredible and definitely learned a lot.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah, we’re going to post a lot of the content that he mentioned in the interview to kind of give you guys some insight if you want to go read the source material yourself.

Charley Burtwistle:

In the shownotes.

Zach Wojtowicz:

In the shownotes. It’s been a while since we had to get a shownote drop.

Charley Burtwistle:

Absolutely.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Yeah. It’s always out there, but we’re calling it out. One thing, I think overall, pretty positive analysis of all economic recessions have variables, and he referenced housing’s part of a broader economic system. I think the thing I always kind of joke with is tech stocks are not the economy. So, that doesn’t mean even though there’s a lot of investment in there, those people who maybe are selling their stocks, they’re putting it elsewhere in a lot of cases. So, it doesn’t mean everything … And yes, there’s some flooding of the labor of those industries, but that’s not the fabric of the economy, the entire picture. I actually feel really positive about his analysis, which is more or less it’s going to have a dip, but then the rebound and all these other major sectors that are evolving how they’re doing things and construction is no exception. He talked about the automation possibilities and the different people out there that are kind of starting to guide ways to address labor shortages and materials are coming back. I’m hearing nuggets of things to be looking forward to if you’re a builder in the coming year.

Charley Burtwistle:

A hundred percent. I think the biggest thing that I’ll just kind of leave everyone with is just talk to people. Continue to listen to podcasts like this. Go to the International โ€ฆ

Zach Wojtowicz:

Shameless plug.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah. Go to the International Buildersโ€™ Show. Go to Buildertrend on the Road, BTU. Even call in, I mean, our CS org, they work with a thousand builders every single day. So, if you want to know what other people are doing to prepare for this, talk to people that know. And listen to podcasts, obviously. Shameless plug. But yeah, I think that about does it for us.

Zach Wojtowicz:

And if you’re a YouTube watcher, you may have noticed on our shirts.

Charley Burtwistle:

Yeah. The brand-new brand.

Zach Wojtowicz:

We got the new brand. Look at that. Teal. Look at that.

Charley Burtwistle:

That is sharp.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Make sure you check out our new brand. Check out our dot com. Our marketing team has been planning this for a very long time. It looks phenomenal. I love it. It’s great. And we’re excited for what that means for you guys with Buildertrend in the future, the software, the business. We’re bringing great things to you, so stay with us.

Charley Burtwistle:

Absolutely. That about does it for us. I’m Charley Burtwistle.

Zach Wojtowicz:

I’m Zach Wojtowicz.

Charley Burtwistle:

We’ll see you next time.

Zach Wojtowicz:

Thanks for watching the video. Remember to subscribe to the YouTube channel for exclusive content brought to you by Buildertrend.

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Mark Boud | A Real Estate Economist


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